The analytics in Kanbanize work per board. Click the Analytics icon on the top of each board to access the Analytics page.
The Analytics screen presents 5 categories: Cycle Time, Throughput, WIP, Flow, Forecasting, each available as a tab item on the page. Click on a tab button to view the charts for each of the respective
metrics. The "Monte Carlo - How Many" simulation belongs to the Forecasting tab.
Introduction to "Monte Carlo - How Мany"
The "How Many" Monte Carlo simulation aims to tell you the minimum amount of work items that you can get done within the next “x” days. For example, you can use it if you’ve got a deadline scheduled for July 7th and you wish to know how many tasks can be finished by then.
The simulation will run a lot of trials based on your historical data/throughput. It can run up to 1 million trials to create a distribution. The chart will be able to tell you with a probability of 50%, 70% 85% and 90% how much work items, you will be able to finish by a certain date.
How to set up the "Monte Carlo - How many"?
From the left side of the panel, you can control which data will be used for the simulation as well as to determine the time frame.
Add a single or multiple workflows (in the past, it used to be just one workflow).
In addition, you can apply other filters. For example, you may want to see only cards of a certain size, etc.
The Monte Carlo simulation consists of three charts:
- Throughput basis (1)
- Throughput Navigation (2)
- Monte Carlo (3)
The horizontal axis of the "Throughput Basis" (1) is a representation of time, while the vertical one shows the daily throughput. The high points of the charts represent the maximum throughput of any of the days in the chart, while the low points represent the minimum number of tasks that were completed. Hovering over the dots will give you summarized information about the number of tasks that have been completed that day. The line between the dots visualizes the rises and drops of your team productivity.
The Throughput Navigator (2) allows you to zoom in and out of a specific interval within the selected time frame. This way you can generate different Monte Carlo simulation without having to reset the general time frame every time.
Monte Carlo (3), which is the bottom chart is direct visualization of the results of the simulation in the form of a probabilistic distribution. The horizontal axis visualizes the total work items that will probably be completed within the selected future date. The vertical axis shows how many instances of a certain result occurred during the trials.
How does this chart work?
(1) Imagine you have a deadline on July 7th. You have to select the date from the respective "End date" calendar picker.
(2) Activate the percentiles (Select all) to get the probabilistic view of the third chart.
(3) Run the Trials (up to 1 million)
What's that telling us?
The third chart will be able to tell you with a probability of 50%, 70% 85% and 90%, how much work items, you will be able to finish by the deadline. The simulation shows you that there is 85% probability that by July 7th, you will finish 121 items. If you want to be more certain go to the 95% percentile, where the number of items is 103.
You may doubt the results if your work items are different in size or some of them are too complex.
That's why it is so important to keep your cycle time smaller. You have to do right-sizing and try finishing work within a certain period of time. If a task is too big, break it down into a smaller chunk of work and flow it through the system. If you do this consistently, the forecast will be more accurate and your process much more predictable.
Controls for this chart - customize your view
You can use the controls to change the Monte Carlo How Many simulation view and to apply additional filters. Please, check the short video below.
- Throughput Chart type - some users prefer Bar chart to visualize the throughput instead of a Line chart.
- Percentiles - select and deselect percentiles to get the probabilistic view.
- Layout - you can remove some of the charts and make only the simulation visible. Moreover, you can add a calendar that visualizes the begin and end date for your prediction.
- Item Filter - apply additional filters to run the simulation for tasks that have a specific location or tasks that gain certain property. Choose values to select which items are available to this chart.